Ah, the pre-salary cap days: remember those? Those ancient, out-of-mind times where the richest of teams could spend to their will on player salaries and assemble the most exceptional dynasties pro sports has ever seen. Oftentimes, these wealthy teams never needed to tank for high draft picks or bottom out because of the regression or the retiring of their stars, because whenever they lost a player, they simply threw some bills that way to make the hole in their roster disappear.
While this was great for the rich organizations, it made it pretty tough for the little guys to survive. Smaller-market teams like the Kansas City Scouts and the California Golden Seals got pummelled game after game, because the big fish like the Canadiens and Maple Leafs had pockets deeper than Mariana's Trench, while theirs resembled more to the depths of a kiddy pool. This sheerly unjust system was like asking a 130 pound lightweight to step into the ring with Muhammed Ali. Eventually, the players and the owners came to agree on the injustice of it, and in the 2005 CBA, the salary cap was introduced.
While the salary cap has helped to level the playing field between all these teams, it has also changed the landscape of the NHL as a whole. Gone are the days where teams could contend for 10, 15 years uninterrupted. Instead, today's NHL is focused around a short, two-to-three year window to bring home Lord Stanley's fabled chalice, then another rebuild. While most of the teams in this league have learned to adapt to this new landscape, you will always indubitably have the people that hang on a bit too long, who try to force a championship on a core that is simply not set up for one. Today, let's take a look at 5 teams who are trying to force their cup windows open when their core is too old, too slow or simply not talented enough.
5. Columbus Blue Jackets
In all honesty, it saddens me to see one of the NHL's newest teams, with only six playoff appearances in their 21 year history, make this list, and contrary to many of the other teams on this list, I cannot solely blame the general manager for their woes. Coach John Tortorella, who, might I add, is a man I carry much respect for, has been responsible for single-handedly driving out and disgruntling star players: Artemi Panarin; Matt Duchene; Sergei Bobrovsky: Pierre-Luc Dubois; potentially Patrik Laine (?): the list goes on. Without them, GM Jarmo Kekalainen has had trouble assembling a contending squad. Tortorella's system carried them to the playoffs a few times, but here's the truth: no matter how good your system is, without star players, you're not going anywhere. The Jackets currently sit sixth-last in the league, third last in CF%, 11th last in GF, and dead last in GA. How's the system working now, Torts?
The good news for Columbus: their rebuild can be relatively easy, if they choose it to be. They have minimal bloated contracts, prospects and young players such as Patrik Laine (if they can salvage him), Oliver Bjorkstrand, Alexandre Texier, Jack Roslovic, Zach Werenski and Liam Foudy, two goaltenders in Elvis Merzlinkins and Joonas Korpisalo as well as a good set of veteran players in Cam Atkinson, Nathan Gerbe and Micheal Del Zotto. If they can move on from Tortorella, acquire more star power and depth, and draft well this year and next, I can see them blossoming into contenders as soon as 2023. This is all hypothetical, however, and until they do this. I just can't see them making much noise.
4. Nashville Predators
Ah, the Nashville Predators: tied down by terrible contracts, lack of goaltending, and most importantly, absolutely disgusting jerseys, the once-perennial contenders are now looking a lot more like a mediocre bubble team than a Stanley Cup Finalist. Their offence, while never being their strong spot in the first place, has been mediocre these past years, finishing middle of the pack in xG% (expected goals) and Goals For , and with 16M tied up in Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen, who are fringe first line centres at best, GM David Poile doesn't exactly have optimal wiggle room to upgrade it.
The defence corps, while not being the same juggernaut it was a few seasons ago, is still serviceable, though stalwarts Josi, Ekholm and Ellis are all approaching the wrong side of thirty on big contracts, and Dante Fabbro, while still being a fringe top-4 guy, has not been the young revelation he was expected to be. As evidenced by their placement in the latter portion of the league in terms of xGA (expected goals against) and Goals Against this year, it looks as though the days of being the best defensive team in the league are coming to the end in Smashville.
In terms of their goaltending, it looks as though Pekka Rinne is closer to a Hall of Fame ballot than a Vezina trophy, as evidenced by his appalling -14.27 GSAA in 2019-20, good for sixth last in the league, and his heir apparent, Juuse Saros, has been at best above-average. With Yaroslav Askarov still years away, it looks as though the Nashville crease might be open for the first time in a while. Overall, it looks like Nashville will need some of that David Poile magic that has kept him in the league for over 20 years to help pull them out of this slump, or even he might be on the chopping block next...
3. San Jose Sharks
It's crazy to think that as recently as last season, we were talking about the Sharks as legit cup contenders, the place where Jumbo Joe and Patrick Marleau could finally get their well deserved cups. Since then, they have simply fallen off a cliff. Their goaltending, led by Martin Jones ,has simply been abysmal for the last two years, with Jones posting back to back terrible GSAA performances of -23.45 and -6.35 (this year and last), Their once revered defensive corps featuring Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, a trio they have over 25 million dollars tied up in, have looked more like fringe top 4 defensemen than perennial Norris contenders, and their offense has simply lacked punch since the departure of Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton: Their xG% (expected goals) and GF (goals for) have been bottom-10 in the league this year, which means that their offensive production has simply been second-tier. Add in the fact that their possession game has been near the basement, and that their special teams have been at best mediocre, GM Doug Wilson and the rest of the staff have their work cut out for them to bring the Sharks back to the level of their 2015 Stanley Cup Finals appearance. Hey, at least they have nice jerseys though.
2. Dallas Stars
Yes, yes, I know, I'm cheating on my darling cup pick from last year, but as I mentioned before, the NHL is a cruel, ever-changing league, and what was a contender one day can turn into a rebuilder the next. The Stars, loaded down with huge contracts given to aging, underperforming players are in a tough spot, sitting in the mushy middle between contention or a retool, much like the Minnesota Wild of last year. And just like the Wild did, the Stars need to pick a direction and stick with it, and in my opinion, the best direction to take would be to dismantle the roster and rebuild it with younger and faster players. Their top players, Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Alex Radulov and Joe Pavelski, all but Seguin on the wrong side of thirty, have seen a massive drop in production as of late, and their steady goaltending tandem of Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin has been once again spoiled by the health of 'Big Ben'. And even after his Cinderella cup run last season, Khudobin has proved to us that he may still be best fitted for a 1B role as evidenced by his respectable, but not notable 2.92 GSAA, good for 26th in the league. The Stars' 2017 first rounder, Jake Oettinger, has been solid, but handing over the net to a 22 year old goaltender is the equivalent risk of walking the Grand Canyon on a tightrope with no safety net.
Their defense, while still being a strong spot, may soon be in cap trouble, with stalwart John Klingberg, superstar Miro Heiskanen and steady Jamie Oleksiak all due at the end of the year, and with Klingberg and Heiskanen surely demanding a sharp hike in their pay, and Jamie Oleksiak attracting considerable attention from other clubs, the Stars may not have the space to retain all three. Adding in the fact that rookie revelation Jason Robertson, young guns Roope Hintz and Denis Gurianov as well as future starter Oettinger, the expected core of the future, are all up in the near future, the Stars will be hard-pressed to keep their future stalwarts together. Example #125693 on why not to extend players into their thirties at high cap hits.
1. Arizona Coyotes
Let me be frank: at the moment, the Coyotes, despite still hanging in the playoff race, might be one of the worst run hockey clubs I have ever seen. Already being a questionably-sized market to start with, the Yotes have made almost every single critical PR mistake they could make, along with incredibly suspect trading, drafting and signing. After last year's John Chayka scouting scandal, you would think that they would lay low in the summer, but newly minted GM Bill Armstrong continued the tradition of tarnishing the team's reputation, with the drafting of defenseman Mitch Miller, who's disgusting past and racist history had caused his draft stock to plummet. They ended up renouncing the rights to the 111th overall pick, another draft selection lost to pointless aberrations on behalf of the organization.
Since then, things have continued to roll downhill, and a team made up of big names not living up to big money has been fastened in the middle of the pack, the worst place to be as a hockey club. The Coyotes are a team made up of long-term, high salary contracts, which is not an optimal position in the first place, but to make matters worse, the players they have locked up are simply not producing. Young guns. Christian Dvorak, Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz, who all have salaries in the 4M-7M range, are all not even close to sniffing point-per-game territory, with point totals so far being 25, 30 and 33 respectively, in 49 games. You simply cannot have that kind of money tied up in players that are not producing at an elite, or even above-average, level. Add in the fact that their veteran contracts of captain Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Phil Kessel are starting to look worse by the day, and you don't have a recipe for minimal cap problems.
Their numbers as a team aren't any better, either: they rank a paltry 19th in CF%, which measures possession numbers, 21st in xGF%, which measures the amount of goals a team is expected to score and allow, as well as a bottom third placement in both GF (goals for) and GA (goals against). Simply put, trouble is brewing inside and outside the Gila River Arena, and Bill Armstrong and Co. have a tough job ahead of them to overcome it.
But what do I know: I'm just a twelve year old aspiring GM. Let me know in the comments what you agree (or disagree) with, and be sure to check out @puckinaroundwithjohnny on Instagram for more analytically-driven insights and news on all thing NHL!
Until next time,
Johnny
Comments